The Great Bond Debate

Bulls and bears are butting heads over direction of the bond market; the majority of investors today expect swings in one direction or the other.

The gulf between bulls and bears has never widened so quickly in the $12 trillion market for U.S. government bonds.

The proportion of investors betting on gains or losses in Treasuries, rather than holding a neutral view, almost doubled this year to 51 percent, a client survey by JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed. The 23 percentage-point jump is the most for the period since the top-ranked firm for U.S. fixed-income research by Institutional Investor magazine began its weekly survey in 2003.

One reason the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has failed to reach its 2 percent goal for 24 consecutive months is because wage growth has been slow to rebound.

Hourly earnings have increased 2.1 percent on average since the recession ended, a percentage point less than during the prior expansion, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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