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The behavior of markets so far this year may seem to be at odds with the notion that political uncertainty is both rising and increasingly relevant. Record-low equity volatility, rates that are moving sideways, and the narrow range in which investment-grade credit spreads have been trading are factors that would normally suggest a benign outlook. But looks can be deceiving. Too much uncertainty can also create paralysis among investors. Markets may be balanced precariously, even if they are trading as if all were well. One need look no further than the U.S. interest rate environment to see the policy knife-edge at play.

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