The euro's three-month rally against all but one of its major peers is imperiled by a deepening credit crunch for European companies that adds to the risk of another recession as the region's counterparts recover.
The currency has weakened 2.8 percent versus the dollar from a four-month high on Sept. 17 as small and medium-sized companies that Deutsche Bank AG says generate as much as 70 percent of the economy are starved of credit. Loans from European banks plunged in September by 0.8 percent from a year earlier. The last time lending contracted that much, in October 2009, the euro fell 5.8 percent in the following three months.
While European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has driven down speculation on the disintegration of the currency bloc, the median of 48 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg is for a drop of about 2.3 percent against the dollar by next September. Companies from Italian window maker Fenster Group Srl to Faustino e Ferreira, a Portuguese building materials firm, say they can't get financing to expand.
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