Sporting a radical redesignthat's expected to charm some and disappoint others, Microsoft'snew Windows 8 faces a tough slog ahead, including a slow adoptionrate, some analysts say.

“The challenges of a new user interface, a complex set ofprocessor choices and a long ramp to a compelling set of appofferings in the Microsoft Store will translate to aslower-than-usual Windows upgrade cycle,” says Frank E. Gillett, ananalyst with Forrester.

Gillett is lead author of a report that predicts a grim outlook for Windows 8 nextyear but concludes that long term, Microsoft could restabilizemarket acceptance of its Windows product line with the rightmoves.

Microsoft is betting big on the new operating system (OS), whichfor the first time is driven by touch-screen controls. The changemakes Windows much easier to use on smartphones and tablets. But ontraditional desktops, the new interface comes across as clunky andinefficient, say many early adopters.

“This common design language is being used across all ofMicrosoft's products and services, including Xbox and Bing,”Gillett says. “To run existing Windows desktop apps and to accesssome systems settings and features, users will switch to 'desktopmode.' This dual personality will likely confuse many users,at least at first.”

“Although Forrester is encouraging enterprises to look atWindows 8 in all use cases, the new Windows 8 UX Start screen isprompting concerns about the need for extensive employee training,”he adds. “Having finally migrated to Windows 7 in significantnumbers and released their death grip on Windows XP, manyenterprise IT shops are content to stand pat.”

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer sees things differently: “Wehave re-imagined Windows, and the result is a stunning lineup ofnew PCs. Windows 8 brings together the best of the PC and thetablet.”

Microsoft is putting significant marketing muscle behind therollout, including the release of its own Microsoft-manufacturedtablet for Windows 8, the Surface. “We decided to do Surfacebecause it's the ultimate expression of a Windows PC for us,” saysSteven Sinofsky, president of Microsoft's Windows Division. “It'san extension of Windows. It's a stage for Windows.”

Microsoft partners are releasing their own studies indicatingmore user enthusiasm than others have found. PC Helps, a Microsoftgold-certified partner, for example, says 25% of companieswith 500 or more employees anticipate migrating to Windows 8,according to its Windows Pulse Survey. And 17% of those employerssaid they expected to start migrating to Windows 8 as soon as theOS was available.

In addition to facing initial resistance fromdesktop users, Windows 8 is in need of “cool.” Currently, it's alltoo fashionable for some consumers to bash anything new fromMicrosoft while genuflecting at the altar of all things Apple.

An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted prior to the release ofWindows 8 last month found 52% of the 1,200 people surveyed werenot even aware that Microsoft was releasing a new OS. Moreover, 61%of those who were aware of Windows 8 expressed little or nointerest in the software. And only 35% of those in the knowthought Windows 8 would be an improvement over previousversions.

That's a far cry from new releases of Apple iPhones and iPads,which generate news stories about hordes of diehard Apple fanscamping out for days to snatch the latest version of their digitalnirvana.

Other market factors outside Microsoft's control may makeWindows 8 a tough sell. “PCs are going through a severe slump,”says Jay Chou, senior research analyst at IDC, a market researchfirm. “The industry had already weathered a rough second quarter,and now the third quarter was even worse. While ultrabook priceshave come down a little, there are still some significantchallenges that will greet Windows 8 in the coming quarter.”

A sluggish economy continues to drag on the market aswell. “Businesses have slowed their refresh cycle as theyremain concerned about the broad economic outlook,” says DavidDaoud, a research director at IDC.

While it's sobering news for Microsoft, the challenging outlookfor Windows 8 is celebrated by others. They see the anticipatedresistance to Windows 8 as a resounding confirmation thatMicrosoft's often stultifying monopoly over the personal computingmarket—which has lasted for decades—has finally been crushed.

Essentially, personal computing has evolved from a desktop-onlyaffair into a decidedly on-the-go market, they say, where Microsoftfaces two formidable competitors—Apple and Google—two “it”companies that also have smarts and very deep pockets.

“Early adopters will jump at Windows tablets,” Gillettconcludes. “Beyond that, individuals will be slow to adopt.Windows will ramp in 2014, gain almost a 30% share of tablets by2016, but will miss out on phones.”

Joe Dysart is anInternet speaker and business consultant based in Manhattan.