The U.S. shale boom will send “shockwaves” through the global oil trade over the next five years, benefiting the nation’s refiners and displacing OPEC as the driver of supply growth, the IEA said.
North America will provide 40 percent of new supplies to 2018 through the development of light, tight oil and oil sands, while the contribution from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will slip to 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA trimmed global fuel demand estimates for the next four years, and predicted that consumption in emerging economies may overtake developed nations this year.
“The U.S. production comes as a godsend solution for a market where emerging market demand is continuing to increase, while supply in the Middle East and North Africa won’t increase that much,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB AB in Oslo, said today.
Demand growth in China, while still the biggest driver of the global expansion after increasing “exponentially” in the past decade, will “shift to a lower gear,” averaging 2.4 million a barrels, or 3.7 percent, a year in the period to 2018 as the country targets a more stable pace of economic development, the IEA said. China will consume about 12 million barrels a day in 2018, making it the second-largest oil user after the U.S.