From his Manhattan office, Steven Englander looks to commentary from policy makers and executives in Sydney, not Beijing, for the best take on China’s economy.
“They get a direct, immediate view of China demand for highly cyclical products and have an incentive to give it a close read, so if they are sensing an extended slowdown I would take their views seriously,” said Englander, 58, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. “It may be better to have an accurate view of a limited but important segment of Chinese demand than an uncertain view of aggregate demand.”
Even so, Englander, who previously worked as an economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, estimates some risk of a dip below 7 percent for a period. He sees GDP rising 7 percent next year and in 2015.
Rudd, a Mandarin speaker and former diplomat in Beijing, has put the case of a China slowdown more starkly than his central bank governor as he campaigns ahead of elections on Sept. 7—flagging the danger of an Australian recession should opposition leader Tony Abbott win power and execute pledged fiscal tightening. The Treasury yesterday said the peak in resource investment will be lower than forecast in May, citing uncertain global prospects, particularly in China and India.