Just because U.S. Treasuries look more and more stable doesn't mean they are.
With trading volumes plunging, the lack of volatility may be more a result of the market becoming less liquid as the Federal Reserve hoards trillions of dollars of bonds and banks pull back from debt trading, not because there's less risk.
Historically, lower volatility has meant more—not less—trading. What's happening instead is that unprecedented central-bank stimulus has sent everyone into the same risk-on bets, while it's also becoming more difficult to trade as banks shore up their balance sheets in the face of new regulations.
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