Currency Volatility on Summer Break

FX volatility may experience an end-of-year increase; there may be money to be made shorting the front end of the curve, says Deutsche Bank executive.

Volatility in the foreign-exchange market will stay near quarter-century lows this summer before a potential late-year “shock,” according to Deutsche Bank AG’s Alan Ruskin.

“The market is extremely complacent, and we will get some sort of shock, probably in quarter four,” Ruskin, global head of Deutsche Bank’s Group of 10 foreign exchange, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. “We’ll see the kind of employment numbers, particularly the decline in the employment rate well below 6 percent, that are going to trigger a reconfiguration in terms of rate expectations.”

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