Brazil and Russia's membership of the BRICs may expire by theend of this decade if they fail to revive their flagging economies,according to Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chiefeconomist who coined the acronym.

Asked if he would still group Brazil, Russia, India, and Chinatogether as emerging market powerhouses, as he did in 2001, O'Neillsaid in an email “I might be tempted to call it just 'IC,' or ifthe next three years are the same as the last for Brazil andRussia, I might in 2019!!”

The BRIC grouping will be dragged down by a 1.8 percentcontraction in Russia and less than 1 percent expansion in Brazil,according to the median estimate of economists surveyed byBloomberg News. China is seen growing 7 percent and India 5.5percent.

The BRICs were still booming as recently as 2007 with Russiaexpanding 8.5 percent and Brazil in excess of 6 percent that year.The bull market in commodities that helped propel growth in thosenations has since ended, while Russia has been battered by sanctions linked to the crisis inUkraine and Brazil has grappled with an unprecedented corruptionscandal involving its state-owned oil company.

“It is tough for the BRIC countries to all repeat theirremarkable growth rates” of the first decade of this century, saidO'Neill, a Bloomberg View columnist and former chairman of GoldmanSachs Asset Management International. “There was a lot of verypowerful and fortuitous forces taking place, some of which have nowgone.”

The growth slump this year isn't a new normal, though, andO'Neill sees expansion in Brazil and Russia partially recovering,helping the BRICs average about 6 percent growth per annum thisdecade—still more than double the average for the Group of Sevennations.

Their share of global gross domestic product will “risesharply,” he said.

O'Neill had previously estimated average annual growth of 6.6percent for the BRICs this decade, a pace it was close to achievingthrough last year mainly because China exceeded the 7.5 percentannual average growth he estimated for the first three years, hesaid.

Unlike Brazil and Russia, China is embracing economic changewhile India, after the election of Narendra Modi as prime ministerand benefiting from low oil prices and a young labor pool, may havebrighter prospects this decade than last, O'Neill said.

With China and India spurring growth, the BRICs will remain themost dominant and positive force in the world economy “easily,”said O'Neill.

China, India

China growing at 7 percent will add about $1 trillion nominallyto global output every year, O'Neill said. When measured bypurchasing power parity, China's growth adds twice as much as theU.S.'s, he said. India expanding at 6 percent will add twice asmuch as the U.K. in those terms, he said.

“Their consumption is increasingly key for global consumption,and which markets were amongst the world's strongest in 2014? Chinaand India both were up significantly,” he said. “So many investorsare herd-like, they probably have already forgotten the BRICs, butit is silly. They are the most important influence in theworld.”

A prediction in his book, “The Growth Map,” that the BRICseconomies would overtake the U.S. in size this year will be delayedlikely until 2017 primarily by the drag from Russia, O'Neillsaid.

The founding of the BRIC's Development Bank signals the group'sinfluence in global economic affairs will rise, O'Neill said.

By 2035, the BRICs will be as big as the Group of Seven nationswhile China is in “a reasonable position” to be bigger than theU.S. in 2027 and India may overtake France to become the world'sfifth biggest economy by 2017, “certainly before 2020,” hesaid.

–With assistance from Simon Kennedy in London.

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