Circle Jan. 31, 2018, on the calendar. That's the soonest the Federal Reserve will next hike interest rates. At least if money market derivatives are to be believed.
Traders, who have consistently been better at projecting the path of interest rates than the Fed itself, are now pricing in a greater probability that policy makers will cut rates in upcoming meetings than raise them. They don't assign more than a 50 percent chance of an increase until the beginning of 2018, and don't price in a full rate hike until the final quarter of that year.
The sea change in outlook for central bank policy comes after global equities and commodities plunged while government bonds and the dollar surged following Britain's vote to quit the European Union. That's tightened financial conditions in the world's largest economy, driven down inflation expectations, and dimmed the outlook for global growth.
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