The U.S.'s tough trade stance has fueled a lobbying blitz,yet seasoned Washington hands are finding that their old playbooksare of little use in talking the Trump administration out ofimposing a broad range of tariffs.Registrations to lobby on tradeissues have surged since President Donald Trump took office. Butconventional influence tactics employed by K Street veterans, suchas cajoling congressional leaders to pressure the White House, haveproven less effective under Trump, according to more than a dozenlobbyists.That's due in part to the president's impulsive,go-it-alone style, which often cuts out lawmakers and leaves fewpaths to his decision-makers. Lobbyists said they're frustrated andsearching for other ways to reach the decider-in-chief.“No oneknows the answer, to be honest,” said Gary Horlick, a Washingtontrade lawyer. “I've been in meetings that normally would have been,'You take chairman so-and-so, I'll work on ranking membersuch-and-such,' and now the meetings are, 'What do we think Trumpmight be interested in'—not intellectually, but like, 'What will hesee?”'Trump entered the White House vowing to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) and has pursued a series of shifts and changes ontrade, bringing more work for lobbyists.Lobbying registrations ontrade issues during the first quarter were the second-highest since2010, behind only the first quarter of 2017, according to aBloomberg Government analysis. There also were 257 activity filingsin the first three months of 2018 from 220 companies andassociations that identified tariff cases as a lobbying issue.Trumpimposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in Marchon grounds of protecting national security, even though the U.S.Chamber of Commerce and industry groups urged him not to pursuethem because of the threat of a trade war.The president also ismoving ahead with duties on $34 billion in Chinese goods thatwill take effect July 6, in response to allegations of intellectualproperty theft, with the threat of tariffs on billions more ifChina retaliates as promised. That's despite overwhelmingopposition to duties from the business community, including acoordinated effort by a coalition of more than 100 trade groups,and jitters in the U.S. stock market whenever the tariff saber israttled.

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Ferris Bueller & Friends

The key administration players on trade are Commerce SecretaryWilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and WhiteHouse trade adviser Peter Navarro, said Trent Lott, the formerSenate majority leader. He lobbies for Squire Patton Boggs LP onbehalf of clients including the Solar Energy Industries Associationand NLMK USA, which is seeking an exclusion from steel importtariffs.But while lobbyists are still pursuing meetings with theusual targets, reaching Trump's inner circle doesn't always workbecause he's been willing to overrule aides—as when the White Houseannounced on May 29 the duties on Chinese goods were proceeding,only days after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said they were “on hold.”“There's no question that the president has his hand onall these trade moves and activities,” Lott said, adding that tradeis something that Trump “has strong feelings” about.Some lobbyistshave turned to the media to convey their message.The president isknown to regularly watch the morning news show “Fox & Friends,”and the National Retail Federation ran a commercial on the programin May, hoping that he'd see it, said David French, the group'ssenior vice president for government relations. The ad featuredactor and economist Ben Stein, reprising his role as the economicsteacher from the 1986 comedy “Ferris Bueller's Day Off,” arguingthat duties are “B-A-D Economics.”Consumer Technology AssociationPresident and CEO Gary Shapiro went on Fox Business Network to tryto influence the White House, and the group has tried approachesthat include a digital campaign, which generated more than 1,300comments to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and 6,700emails to state and federal elected officials.“The best thing wecan all do is just try every avenue and eventually something,hopefully, will stick,” said Sage Chandler, the group's vicepresident for international trade.The U.S. Chamber released a newanalysis Monday in its efforts to oppose Trump's tariffs showinghow retaliatory duties on about $75 billion in U.S. exports fromChina and other counties as of this week will affect each state.Michigan, for example, which helped deliver the presidency toTrump, has more than $2.3 billion in automobiles and other productssubject to tariffs, the chamber's analysis shows.“Theadministration is threatening to undermine the economic progress itworked so hard to achieve,” President and CEO Thomas Donohue saidin a statement. “It's time to reverse course and adopt smarter,more effective approaches for addressing trade concerns withcommercial partners.”Some lobbyists said they even craft tweets ontrade-related issues in Trump's Twitter style, in hopes they'llreach the president.One of the biggest adjustments for lobbyistswith Trump compared with previous presidents is that while actionsby other administrations were taken at face value, what Trump saysand does may just be meant as leverage, said Frank Samolis, partnerand co-chairman of the International Trade Group at Squire PattonBoggs. That's made it a challenge to interpret Trump for clientsmaking long-term investment decisions, he said.“It certainly is anew world with Trump,” Samolis said. “People that are used totraditional trade lobbying are forced to recalibrate.”Lobbyistsalso fear that political considerations—like the desire to appeartough on trading partners—might drive decisions more thaneconomics, one lobbyist said. And Trump is seen as a wild cardwho's as likely to send policymakers back to the drawing board ifhe doesn't like their advice as he is to double or triple down onmeasures he approves.

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'Pleasant Surprise'

The administration has listened as companies and business groupssought exclusions from the metal tariffs and to have products addedto or removed from the list of Chinese imports targeted for duties,said Ron Sorini, a trade lobbyist and former chief textilenegotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Hisclients include Vista Outdoor Inc. and Newell Brands Inc., whichhad goods removed from the duty list.But Sorini said he tells hisclients to assume tariffs will be imposed and hope for a “pleasantsurprise,” and he also doesn't “promise anyone we're going to getdirectly in front of President Trump.”Nobody's quite figured how tobest influence an unpredictable president, said Lee Drutman, asenior fellow at New America, a Washington think tank, who'swritten about lobbying.“A lot of companies are struggling to figureout, how do you convince this guy?” Drutman said. “He seems tobe—'whimsical' would be a generous word; 'capricious,' 'mercurial'would probably be more appropriate—and there's really noplaybook.”

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