Workers at the U.S. State Department in Washington.
President Donald Trump’s budget office threatened mass firings of federal workers if the government shuts down on October 1. The threat incensed Democratic leaders and ramped up the political and economic stakes if lawmakers and the White House can’t reach a deal.
A memo sent last night from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directs agencies to plan to permanently lay off federal workers in programs that do not align with Trump’s priorities if the deadline to pass funding lapses.
Democratic leaders pushed back against the White House, saying they wouldn’t back down in the face of the administration’s hardball tactic, and it swiftly stoked partisan tensions in the capital. The threat also worsened the potential disruption a shutdown would create in the economy with an already weakening labor market, since a shutdown now could trigger permanent dismissals of government workers instead of temporary furloughs. Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, whose state is home to many federal workers, denounced Trump for “mafia-style blackmail, with his threats ultimately harming the American people.”
The move came after Trump scrapped plans to meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of whom said they won’t be intimidated. “These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back,” Schumer said in a statement. His Democrats last week blocked a short-term Republican spending bill and demanded negotiations to extend expiring healthcare subsidies and avert a spike in Obamacare insurance premiums.
But Schumer himself publicly worried in March that the Trump administration would seek to use a shutdown to eviscerate agencies, suggesting that court challenges could roll back some of Trump’s unilateral spending cuts if the government stayed open. Senate Democrats provided key votes to advance a Republican spending bill then, but Schumer has changed tactics now after a backlash from the party’s progressive base.
Typically, many federal workers are temporarily sent home during a shutdown and receive back pay once it ends. Workers deemed essential for functions like national security work without pay until the shutdown ends.
The OMB memo, however, makes clear the Trump administration would instead use a shutdown to gut programs the administration does not support. That could lead to large numbers of federal workers losing their jobs. Even if courts ultimately reverse the firings, those workers could face a long period without pay.
Newly unemployed federal workers would face a tough hiring environment. Job growth has slowed sharply in recent months, and in the area around Washington, earlier efforts to shrink government spending have made it particularly difficult for many workers to find job opportunities that match their skills. The unemployment rate in Virginia, where many federal workers and contractors live, has climbed nearly every month this year. The jobless rate has also risen in both Washington and Maryland.
Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, a union representing federal workers, urged Trump and Democrats to negotiate an agreement to avoid a funding lapse.
“The only path forward is compromise,” Kelley said. “The president and congressional leaders must sit down and negotiate in good faith.”
Democrats have argued that Trump has already engaged in illegal mass firings without congressional approval. Trump could face political risks of his own if he were to fire large numbers of federal workers and slash popular public services. And he could be blamed if the economy then tipped into recession.
Budget expert Bobby Kogan of the left-of-center Center for American Progress said reductions in force are governed by regulations and collective bargaining agreements, and spending money to carry out permanent dismissals might also violate laws governing shutdowns.
Jeffries told reporters yesterday that he believes courts would be able to operate and adjudicate such matters in a shutdown, though federal court officials warned this week due to tight budgets they would start to shut down by October 3.
The administration might argue that the preparation for the reduction in force took place before the actual shutdown and no violation occurred. They might also argue in court that statutory minimum staffing—like that in place to keep a stripped-down version of USAID functioning—no longer applies in a shutdown.
Even without mass firings, the OMB has leeway to define essential and nonessential activities during a shutdown, and to make those decisions based on Trump’s agenda. That could focus more of the shutdown pain on Democrats’ priorities. One key advantage for the White House referenced in the OMB memo is that core Trump priorities of the military and homeland security are already funded outside of the annual appropriations process. They were given a $320 billion boost in the giant Trump tax bill, and that money can still flow during a shutdown.
When senators return to Washington Monday, Senate Republican leaders will hold another vote on a no-strings stopgap through November 21. They’ll need at least seven Democrats to pass the bill.
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