A Now Hiring sign hangs near the entrance to a supermarket in Hallandale, Florida.
Job openings across the United States were little changed in August while hiring was subdued, suggesting gradually ebbing demand for workers.
Available positions ticked up to 7.23 million, from a revised 7.21 million reading in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data published today. Openings have dropped from a peak in early 2022 and have remained within a narrow band for the past year.
Economists are closely watching for any further signs of softening as employers have pulled back on hiring and it’s taking longer for unemployed people to find a new position. The hiring rate last month edged down to 3.2 percent, the lowest since June 2024, while layoffs were little changed at a low level, according to the JOLTS data.
Furthermore, the number of people who voluntarily left their jobs dropped to the lowest level this year. This suggests that people are less confident in their ability to find a new position.
A separate release out today, this one from the Conference Board, showed U.S. consumer confidence fell in September to a five-month low on concerns about cooling in the labor market and the broader economy. The report shows the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful has declined to the lowest level since February 2021.
“Companies are clearly hoarding workers with the economy still at full employment,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note. “It will take a bigger blow than what we have seen so far to convince companies that it is safe and prudent—and necessary—to lay off workers.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointed to weakness in the labor market when policymakers lowered interest rates earlier this month. While other officials share those concerns, many are hesitant to cut rates further with inflation still well above the central bank’s target.
Policymakers would ordinarily rely on marquee government data to guide their decisions, including at their next meeting at the end of October. But it’s unclear how much information they’ll have in hand by then with a government shutdown looming. A shutdown would likely delay the release of Friday’s jobs report and other key figures.
What Bloomberg economists say...“Job openings increased in August, but reported vacancies aren’t resulting in quicker hiring. Workers are holding on to their jobs as their prospects to new employment at higher wages fade.”— Stuart Paul |
The pickup in openings was led by accommodation and food services, while construction and federal government posted notable declines in jobs, according to the JOLTS report.
The number of vacancies per unemployed worker, a ratio Fed officials watch closely as a proxy of the balance between labor demand and supply, held at 1-to-1. At its peak in 2022, the ratio was 2-to-1. For a second straight month, there are now slightly more unemployed people than there are jobs available. The last time that happened was in early 2021, when the economy was clawing its way out of the pandemic.
Some economists have questioned the validity of the JOLTS data, in part due to the survey’s low response rate and sometimes sizable revisions. A separate index by job-posting site Indeed, which is reported on a daily basis, showed openings were little changed in August and have fallen more markedly in September.
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