Ezrati's Economic Outlook: The President's Budget

Plan is DOA, but what’s not in it is most revealing.


President Barack Obama has released his fiscal 2013 budget. Republicans promptly condemned it as irresponsible and merely a campaign document. Since Republicans dominate the House of Representatives, there is little chance that this budget, or anything like it, will pass into law before the November elections, if then. But if this proposed budget is dead on arrival, leaving little reason for investors to adjust their portfolios for it, still the document can instruct, especially on what it ultimately will take to address this nation’s deficit and debt problems. Two matters in particular come clear: (1) overall spending control demands entitlements reform and (2) tax hikes on the wealthy, whatever they mean to fairness, cannot fully answer the deficit question.

There is no need to dwell on detail to see the way to overall spending control. This White House budget has done what it can outside of entitlements, and the result has made it clear that such a focus is insufficient. The White House budget would cut defense outlays for 2012 and permit so little growth over the following four years that, overall, such spending would increase at a meager 0.8% a year from 2011 to 2016. In addition, the administration plans significant long-term cuts in non-defense discretionary spending. According to these proposals, such outlays would drop more than 8% during these five years, 1.7% a year. And yet, because this budget does little to address the growth in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, overall outlays—even apart from the interest expense on the debt—continue to grow at an annual rate of more than 4%  over this time.

About the Author

Milton Ezrati

Milton Ezrati

Milton Ezrati is senior economist and market strategist for Lord Abbett & Co. and an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital and Economic Growth at the State University of New York at Buffalo. His latest book, Thirty Tomorrows, linking aging demographics and globalization, will appear next summer from Thomas Dunne Books of St. Martin’s Press. See more of his articles about the economy here.

 

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