Ezrati’s Economic Outlook: Subtle Shift in Tone

Bernanke’s new QE approach suggests the Fed sees improvement.

It is a subtle change in tone but nonetheless significant. The Federal Reserve, while continuing to hint at future quantitative easing (QE), seems at last to feel a need to address the longer-term inflationary risks of such policies. Accordingly, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke unveiled a new approach to quantitative easing, what he calls “sterilized QE.” He claims it would both support markets (and the economy) and at the same time guard against any longer-term inflationary consequences. Though there is good reason for skepticism about the technique he has outlined, this recent change in tone does offer encouragement. 

Several recent developments could have prompted the Fed’s seemingly sudden interest in longer-term inflationary issues. The recent report on rising labor costs could be one. According to the Labor Department, hourly output per worker slowed in the fourth quarter to less than a 1% annualized rate of advance even as compensation gains accelerated to about a 4% annual rate. The resulting 3%-plus rise in the labor cost of a unit of output may not in itself raise fundamental inflation fears, but it could be taken as an early harbinger nonetheless. 

About the Author

Milton Ezrati

Milton Ezrati

Milton Ezrati is senior economist and market strategist for Lord Abbett & Co. and an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital and Economic Growth at the State University of New York at Buffalo. His latest book, Thirty Tomorrows, linking aging demographics and globalization, will appear next summer from Thomas Dunne Books of St. Martin’s Press. See more of his articles about the economy here.



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