Emerging-Market Bond Losses Expected to Intensify

As costs of emerging-market debt reach highest level in four years, BlackRock predicts further valuation changes.

Wall Street’s biggest firms are predicting intensifying bond losses in emerging markets, where borrowing costs have already soared to the highest level in more than four years versus U.S. corporate debt, as the Federal Reserve considers curtailing record stimulus.

“We’re not yet convinced that we’ve seen the worst in terms of flows out of emerging markets,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, the chief investment strategist in fixed-income at New York-based BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, said in a telephone interview, expressing his own views. “We see a lot of valuation change but we see the potential for even more valuation change.”

The indexes typically fall as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a swap protecting $10 million of debt.

The Bloomberg Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index has declined 0.63 percent this month, bringing losses for the year to 3.95 percent.

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