The new JPMorgan Chase & Co. headquarters in New York.
A fresh wave of spending on investments in artificial intelligence (AI) will help drive 2026 issuance in the U.S. investment-grade market—to a record $1.81 trillion—next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The full-year projection surpasses the prior record of $1.76 trillion set in 2020, JPMorgan credit strategists including Nathaniel Rosenbaum and Eric Beinstein wrote in a note today. Issuers looking to refinance more than $1 trillion of maturing debt, a boost in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and the boom in AI capital spending will be key drivers for the material uptick in new bonds next year, they said.
This year’s debt binge was driven in part by better borrowing rates, the surge in AI spending, and a revival in acquisitions. Despite all the recent worries about cracks forming in the credit market, JPMorgan joins others on Wall Street that expect the momentum to extend into next year.
The bank’s strategists project that the technology, media, and telecommunications sector will borrow about $400 billion in the high-grade market next year. They also forecast that technology firms will bump up their issuance to $252 billion, 61 percent more than tech has borrowed so far in 2025. The strategists also expect a 44 percent increase in the consumer sector, to $135 billion, and a 38 percent increase in the media and entertainment sector, to $85 billion, while telecom borrowing is expected to rise 25 percent, to $56 billion next year.
JPMorgan projects that the largest decline in borrowing will come from U.S. banks—a 6 precent drop year-over-year on the back of reduced supply needs after the supplementary leverage ratio reform.
M&A–related supply is expected to rise to $182 billion for next year, up 21 percent from $151 billion so far this year, by JPMorgan’s estimates.
The concern over tariff volatility and uncertainty over taxes that dampened expectations for M&A activity in the first half of this year have now eased, they said. The M&A pipeline is looking healthy, with $94 billion worth of deals to be funded in 2026 already announced. The JPMorgan strategists expect another $88 billion, based on analyst forecasts for future deals driven by sector trends.
“The ‘animal spirits’ have returned as it pertains to M&A, with many deals funded in the high-grade market in recent weeks and some issuers even pulling forward deals from next year into 2025,” wrote Rosenbaum and Beinstein. They estimate maturities will remain close to a record high in 2026, at just over $1 trillion, little changed year-over-year. With the projected 2026 gross supply up about 17 percent compared with issuance so far this year and maturities about flat, that would lead to net issuance rising 54 percent next year, to $802 billion, the highest since 2020.
“The high-grade market is still growing at 4 percent to 5 percent per year, so gross issuance shifting slightly higher over time is a natural consequence of this,” they said.
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