Get ready again for some wild fluctuations in the U.S. Treasurybill market. On March 16, the statutory limit on the nation's debt,better known as the debt ceiling, will be reinstated.

Here's a guide for what to watch for as the Treasury Departmentbegins to resort to “extraordinary measures” in the coming days tocontinue to fund the government while meeting a legal requirementto limit the nation's cash balance.

How Did We Get Here?

As part of a deal struck to avoid a default during a November2015 political showdown, the Treasury will have to slice itsoperating balance to $23 billion by next week. That's the amountwhen the compromise was reached by Congress in 2015 to avoid makingthe debt ceiling an issue again during the presidential election.Officials have already cut the cash by more than $200 billion sinceFeb. 10.

To meet the target, Treasury is trimming bill auction sizes,helping to keep bill yields from rising as fast as longer-maturitydebt. Since Feb. 14, the four-week bill auction was slashed by $30billion to $15 billion. The three- and six-month sales were reducedby $4 billion each on March 6. This means Treasury will pay downabout $116 billion of bills during the next week, including $70billion of cash-management bills, according to ThomasSimons, a senior economist at Jefferies. About $177 billion ofbills have been retired since Dec. 1.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
  • Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world cas studies, and other critical content
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.