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Bankruptcies May Skyrocket

Professor whose formula predicts corporate bankruptcies warns that growing debt during the Covid crisis might lead to unprecedented spate of bankruptcies.

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The New York University (NYU) professor who developed one of the best-known formulas for predicting corporate bankruptcies has a warning for U.S. credit investors: This year’s spate of “mega” insolvencies is just getting started.

More than 30 American companies with liabilities exceeding $1 billion have filed for Chapter 11 since the start of January, and that number is likely to top 60 by year-end after companies piled on debt during the pandemic, according to Edward Altman, creator of the Z-score and professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business. Global firms have sold a record $2.1 trillion of bonds this year, with nearly half coming from U.S. issuers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While the stimulus-fueled rally in credit markets since March has helped borrowers stay afloat during the coronavirus crisis, Altman and others have warned that many companies are just delaying an inevitable reckoning. Fitch Ratings estimates that worldwide corporate bond defaults this year could exceed levels reached during the global recession in 2009.

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