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History has taught us that insolvencies act like the canary in the coal mine: Their rise typically precedes a recession. 2019 marks an inflection point of rising insolvencies in developed markets around the world, with Atradius economists predicting an increase of nearly 3 percent in 2019 and 1.2 percent in 2020. But this time, it’s not clear what the trend might foretell. Some of the major factors contributing to the current insolvency increase—notably, uncertainty over trade policy and Brexit—could be corrected during the next few months.

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