History has taught us that insolvencies act like the canary inthe coal mine: Their rise typically precedes a recession. 2019marks an inflection point of rising insolvencies in developedmarkets around the world, with Atradius economists predicting an increase ofnearly 3 percent in 2019 and 1.2 percent in 2020. But this time,it's not clear what the trend might foretell. Some of the majorfactors contributing to the current insolvency increase—notably,uncertainty over trade policy and Brexit—could be corrected duringthe next few months.

What is clear is that these are uncertain times, as businessleaders everywhere anxiously await the next round of tariffs in theeconomic tit-for-tat between the United States andChina. Brexit is another source of worry, as it'sanyone's guess at this point how the final decision will playout.