Toyota Motor Corp. has long tracked President Donald Trump's trade threats toward Japan, not to mention tweets slamming the automaker for building a new plant in Mexico. Yet when the U.S. actually imposed tariffs on aluminum and steel imports last year, Toyota's crisis management kicked into an entirely different realm.

The company now has a “virtual war room” of about 150 employees mapping out the impact of various U.S. trade policy scenarios, according to a person familiar with its strategic planning. About 50 of them, mostly supply chain and logistics experts, are based in North America. The great unknown: Will Washington's rapid policy shifts on trade end in 2020, or carry on for another four years if Trump is re-elected?

In the shadow of a shape-shifting trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, business leaders find themselves in a geopolitical free-fire zone. The rules that have governed economic relations between both countries since China's growth miracle started in the 1980s are being torn up, forcing corporate executives to hedge against a great unraveling of supply chains, manufacturing networks, and pricing strategies.