Interest Rates

Some officials worry that the war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates; others see a risk to inflation that might warrant rate increases.

The core CPI rose from a year ago by the least since 2021, and traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year.

"The January payrolls report lessens the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, but as we expect inflation to ease in coming months, we think policymakers have room to cut rates to support the labor market recovery."

"A couple [interest rate cuts] are priced in, but we could have four or five rather than two."

"The window for a cut under a Powell-led Fed is essentially closed. He is more optimistic about the labor market and economy overall than he was."

FOMC officials on both ends of the spectrum voted against the move, as both inflation and unemployment are higher than the Fed wants them to be.