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President Jimmy Carter’s chief economist Charles Schultze used to love to tell a story about meeting with the president on the economy in the fall of 1978: The decade had been a tumultuous one with the near impeachment and resignation of Richard Nixon, the oil embargo of 1973 and runaway inflation. But things had begun to take a turn for the better, and sitting that autumn afternoon in the Oval Office, Carter wanted to know what Schultze saw as the likely scenario for the two years leading up to the presidential elections of 1980.

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