As the Federal Reserve winds down its third round ofunprecedented stimulus, one thing has become increasingly clear inthe bond market: The U.S. economy just isn't going to grow enoughto upend demand for Treasuries.

While more than $3 trillion of debt purchases since 2008 havehelped the U.S. recover from its worst recession in seven decades,bond-market indicators for long-term inflation, growth, and fundingcosts are all lower now than they were at the end of the centralbank's first two rounds of quantitative easing.

Investors' diminished outlook for the economy could helpprevent an exodus from the $12.2 trillion market for Treasuries andcontain long-term borrowing costs for the government, companies,and consumers as the Fed moves toward raising interest rates. Afterdemand for the benchmark 10-year note this year pushed down yieldsby almost half a percentage point, to 2.61 percent, implied yieldsnow suggest investors don't foresee them increasing to 3 percentfor at least another year.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
  • Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world cas studies, and other critical content
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.