Ten years after the credit crisis, and with the Federal Reserveraising rates eight times since 2015, the end game is fastapproaching. As the U.S. economy has strengthened, the effect ofrate increases on the yield curve has been uneven, resulting inspeculation about prospects for a yield-curve inversion.Macroeconomic factors like trade policy, emerging-marketsvolatility, and quantitative easing in Europe further complicatethe landscape.

Everyone seems to have a view about the future, although whichview is prevailing changes regularly. One thing is clear, however:Further rate increases are very likely. We don't know how many, forhow long, or what their effect on the yield curve may be. However,corporate treasury and finance professionals can use scenarioanalysis and simulations to assess the impact of the Fed's interestrate end game.