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Chief financial officers in the United States expect a recession as soon as next year, adding to signs that the outlook is souring among businesses and consumers amid a trade war and volatile financial markets.

About 49 percent of respondents see an economic downturn by the end of 2019, while 82 percent expect that a recession will have begun by the end of 2020, the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook fourth-quarter survey showed Wednesday. The poll’s U.S. optimism index fell to 66.4, the lowest since the third quarter of 2017.

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