More than three-quarters of business economists expect the United States to enter a recession by the end of 2021, though a majority still estimate the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates this year.
According to a semiannual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey released Monday, 10 percent see a recession beginning this year; 42 percent project one starting next year; and 25 percent expect a contraction to start in 2021. Other respondents to the Jan. 30–Feb. 8 poll of nearly 300 NABE members expect a recession later than 2021 or expressed no opinion.
The projections come ahead of the U.S. Commerce Department's release this week of the advance reading for fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which was delayed by the government shutdown. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected, as of Friday, that growth cooled to a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the final months of 2018, from 3.4 percent in the third quarter.
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