Today, global risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft releasedthe results of its latest Civil Unrest Index Projections. Theoutlook is not optimistic.

The firm identifies 37 countries that it expects to face majorspikes in unrest during the second half of this year. Drivers ofthis dissension include the growing numbers of unemployed,underpaid, and underfed citizens in these jurisdictions. Covid-19 has routed economies around the world,and Verisk Maplecroft expects the slow and painful recovery toinflame the public's anger with their governments. This poses "arisk to domestic stability with few parallels in recent decades,"the firm warns.

Most of the economies facing the highest risks are located inAfrica and Latin America, although the United States is also atmedium to high risk. (See Figure 1, below.) Unrest in emerging andfrontier markets fell during spring 2020, presumably as a result ofgovernment lockdowns. However, protestors are now hitting thestreets worldwide, speaking out about socioeconomic inequalities,civil and political rights, and government corruption. Nigeria,Iran, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Ethiopia are among the highest-riskcountries, as they face a "perfect storm" of anger over both thepandemic economy and preexisting grievances.

"The total number of protests in frontier and emerging marketshas almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels," says Miha Hribernik,principal analyst with Verisk Maplecroft. "With many countriesstill in lockdown, and the full economic shock of the outbreak yetto be felt, we expect the number of protests to surge over the nexttwo to three months."

Verisk Maplecroft combined data from its six-month Civil UnrestIndex Projections and its Recovery Capacity Index, which measures acountry's ability to bounce back from the economic devastation ofthe pandemic by assessing the strength of state institutions,physical and digital connectivity, economic dynamism, populationsensitivity, and country-specific factors that could impederecovery (such as natural disasters or terrorism). The combinedanalysis of these two indices projects that 37 countries willexperience both low levels of recovery capacity and high levels ofcivil unrest over the coming two quarters.

"Our base case from January—that 2020 will see a surge inprotests and that the coming decade is set to be one ofunprecedented unrest—still stands," says Hribernik. "But in thecountries least prepared to bounce back from the pandemic, it nowlooks like a best-case scenario."

For nations in which grievances around political rights orstructural problems have been festering for years, even a strongeconomic recovery may not eliminate the risk of civil unrest. Asexamples, Verisk Maplecroft cites India, which it ranks21^st most risky, and Hong Kong (28^th). India,the firm says, is focused on tackling the explosion of coronaviruscases, so its recovery capacity is middle-of-the-road. However,persistent anger over the Citizenship Amendment Act is set toresurface, putting the country at high to extreme risk of civilunrest. Similarly, although Hong Kong quickly suppressed itsinitial Covid-19 outbreak, anti-government protests have resumedand will likely continue to foment unrest.

Verisk Maplecroft rates the United States the 48^thriskiest country in the world. "The combination of Black LivesMatter protests, alongside mounting frustration over job losses andPresident Trump's weak pandemic response, means more unrest isinevitable," the report concludes.