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Global Risk of Civil Unrest

New analysis shows 37 countries face a “perfect storm” of risk due to Covid-19 and preexisting political and social tensions.

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Today, global risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft released the results of its latest Civil Unrest Index Projections. The outlook is not optimistic.

The firm identifies 37 countries that it expects to face major spikes in unrest during the second half of this year. Drivers of this dissension include the growing numbers of unemployed, underpaid, and underfed citizens in these jurisdictions. Covid-19 has routed economies around the world, and Verisk Maplecroft expects the slow and painful recovery to inflame the public’s anger with their governments. This poses “a risk to domestic stability with few parallels in recent decades,” the firm warns.

Most of the economies facing the highest risks are located in Africa and Latin America, although the United States is also at medium to high risk. (See Figure 1, below.) Unrest in emerging and frontier markets fell during spring 2020, presumably as a result of government lockdowns. However, protestors are now hitting the streets worldwide, speaking out about socioeconomic inequalities, civil and political rights, and government corruption. Nigeria, Iran, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Ethiopia are among the highest-risk countries, as they face a “perfect storm” of anger over both the pandemic economy and preexisting grievances.

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