stock images of 2020 presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump (Images: Shutterstock)

As Election Day arrived, political analysts and strategists were quick to air their predictions on whether an election outcome will be known quickly or drag on, and on how the Senate and House races will shape up.

"It could take days for officials to count mail-in ballots—and then there will be recounts and inevitable lawsuits that could take weeks to resolve," Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, said in his Tuesday morning email briefing. "It's 2020 after all; expect the unexpected."

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Democratic strategist James Carville said Monday on MSNBC, however, that "we're going to know the winner of this election by 10 tomorrow night. What people are doing is unnecessarily scaring people and making them unnecessarily nervous."

Carville, the lead strategist during former President Bill Clinton's campaign, added: "I am not the least bit concerned about the outcome tomorrow night, and I'm not the least bit concerned that we're going to have to wait weeks and months to know what the result is."

Andy Friedman, founder and principal of The Washington Update, said via email Tuesday that "Trump has a better chance to win than people realize," and "I think he will win Florida."

Pennsylvania, however, "is a toss-up," he said. "If Trump wins Pennsylvania as well, he needs to win two of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina to win the election."

Easy calls, according to Valliere, are that the Democrats will maintain control of the House, probably picking up a few more seats. "They presently have a 35-seat majority. Joe Biden will easily win the popular vote, perhaps by 5 or 6 million votes."

The "toughest call" is the Senate, Valliere said. "The Senate, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, still looks very close. Republicans may lose four of their seats while the Democrats lose only one—creating a 50-50 tie that the Democrats would break. Or the Democrats could gain control by 51-49. Or we may have to wait for a runoff election on January 4 in Georgia."

Legal challenges may become moot if Florida or North Carolina "break early tonight for Biden," Valliere said.

But President Donald Trump is likely to challenge a close outcome, Valliere continued, "with Attorney General Barr taking a case all the way to the Supreme Court. A final ruling may not come until December, which would not be a welcome development for the financial markets."

The latest CNBC and Change Research "States of Play" election poll, released Tuesday, shows the race tightening in at least three crucial states.

The poll, conducted October 29 to November 1, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading (50 percent vs. 46 percent) across all six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), a position he has held since mid-summer.

Biden's lead, however, is narrowing in some states, most of which are tied within the margin of error.

Since the last CNBC/Change Research poll two weeks ago, Trump picked up three points in Florida (51 percent Biden vs. 48 percent Trump), two points in Arizona (50 percent Biden vs. 47 percent Trump), and one point in Wisconsin (53 percent Biden vs. 45 percent Trump).

 

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Melanie Waddell

Melanie is senior editor and Washington bureau chief of ThinkAdvisor. Her ThinkAdvisor coverage zeros in on how politics, policy, legislation and regulations affect the investment advisory space. Melanie’s coverage has been cited in various lawmakers’ reports, letters and bills, and in the Labor Department’s fiduciary rule in 2024. In 2019, Melanie received an Honorable Mention, Range of Work by a Single Author award from @Folio. Melanie joined Investment Advisor magazine as New York bureau chief in 2000. She has been a columnist since 2002. She started her career in Washington in 1994, covering financial issues at American Banker. Since 1997, Melanie has been covering investment-related issues, holding senior editorial positions at American Banker publications in both Washington and New York. Briefly, she was content chief for Internet Capital Group’s EFinancialWorld in New York and wrote freelance articles for Institutional Investor. Melanie holds a bachelor’s degree in English from Towson University. She interned at The Baltimore Sun and its suburban edition.