With inflation fears rising and interest rates looking increasingly likely to be hiked soon, investment-grade corporate bonds are at high risk of getting hit in the coming months, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Federal Reserve is more likely to hike rates sooner after last week's U.S. inflation report, and an index of expectations for future bond yield swings has reached its highest level since April 2020. With current high valuations, there's little room for error, and even slight stresses can weigh on returns, Morgan Stanley strategists including Srikanth Sankaran wrote. On top of that, corporate earnings are increasingly at risk from supply-chain problems and wage pressure, the strategists wrote.

Add it all up, and the "likelihood of a mid-cycle correction is high," particularly in the early part of next year, the strategists wrote in a note dated November 14.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.

  • Critical Treasury & Risk information including in-depth analysis of treasury and finance best practices, case studies with corporate innovators, informative newsletters, educational webcasts and videos, and resources from industry leaders.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Treasury & Risk events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including PropertyCasualty360.com and Law.com.

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.