How the Russia-Ukraine War Is Shaping New Global Trade Patterns

Few expected the Russian war on Ukraine to last for such a long time. But now, 11 months after the initial invasion, the war continues to shape political, economic, and trade relations. It has become clear that the consequences are not limited to the conflict region itself, but are global and will be long-lasting.

In the second quarter of 2022, due to its aggression on Ukraine, Russia experienced volatility in its trade with nearly every other country around the world. More recent data reveals the emergence of new trade patterns.

From the perspective of exports to Russia, strong year-over-year declines in trade value can be seen in nearly every nation. This trend relates not only to those countries that have imposed sanctions, which are primarily developed economies, but also to many emerging economies. On average, global exports to Russia dropped by about 50 percent initially, an effect that has been decaying slightly since June. The three countries that contributed to this decay the most—by significantly increasing exports to Russia—are mainland China, Iran, and Turkey.

From the perspective of imports from Russia, trade value for countries around the world increased in late 2022. This may be primarily a result of rising prices for oil, gas, and coal. In addition, though, Russian exports to several specific countries spiked. The group increasing imports from Russia includes mainland China; Brazil; Vietnam; Turkey; Serbia; and—most important—India, which noted an increase of more than 100 percent year-over-year in trade during each month since the war started.

India’s imports from Russia have contributed to its remarkable resistance to the global economic slowdown and impressive year-over-year growth rates over the final months of 2022. In fact, the monthly year-over-year growth in Indian imports from Russia is the most significant shift in trade relationships among any of the world’s largest economies over the past year.