Photo: Kyle Kersbergen works on heavy machinery at Weiler, a manufacturing factory in Knoxville, Iowa, on July 21, 2023. Photographer: Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg Kyle Kersbergen works on heavy machinery at Weiler, a manufacturing factory in Knoxville, Iowa, on July 21, 2023. Photographer: Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg

A key measure of U.S. consumer prices rose only modestly for a second straight month, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without sparking a recession.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent for a second month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed Thursday. That marked the smallest back-to-back gains in more than two years.

Economists view the core measure as a better indicator of underlying inflation than the overall CPI, which also increased 0.2 percent. The annual CPI measure, however, picked up slightly due to a less-favorable comparison with the index a year ago.

Indicator Actual change Median estimate
CPI (month-over-month) +0.2% +0.2%
Core CPI (month-over-month) +0.2% +0.2%
CPI (year-over-year) +3.2% +3.3%
Core CPI (year-over-year) +4.7% +4.7%

The progress on inflation, combined with solid economic growth and a healthy but gradually cooling labor market, represents another step in the right direction for the central bank. The highest interest rates in 22 years have played a role in calming price pressures but have yet to tip the nation into a recession that many economists once thought was inevitable.

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