Speaker Mike Johnson
House Speaker Mike Johnson's new short-term funding plan for the U.S. government could run aground in the next 24 hours, raising the risk of a November 18 shutdown.
Hardline conservatives have two opportunities to torpedo Johnson's proposal even before a House vote planned for Tuesday. President Joe Biden also has a weapon available. He could issue an explicit veto threat, which would damage prospects for Democrats' support in that vote.
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Biden indicated Monday afternoon he was inclined against making a veto threat, noting ongoing negotiations with Senate leaders from both parties. "I'm not going to make a judgment on what I'd veto or what I'd sign," Biden told reporters at the White House, adding he "will wait and see" how talks on interim funding progress.
Johnson's plan, which would temporarily fund some parts of the U.S. government through January 19 and other parts through February 2, faces opposition from at least eight ultra-conservatives who want immediate spending cuts or changes to immigration law as a condition for any interim measure.
"I will not support a status quo that fails to acknowledge fiscal irresponsibility, and changes absolutely nothing while emboldening a do-nothing Senate and a fiscally illiterate president," House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry said on X, the social media site.
That means Johnson will need at least some Democrats to vote for his plan, though many of them object to leaving out aid to Israel and Ukraine and to the threat of a two-step shutdown in the new year.
Hardline conservatives' opportunities stem from the House's byzantine parliamentary rules, which are so burdensome that legislation typically requires a special individual rule that must be proposed by the powerful House Rules Committee.
Ultra-conservatives on the panel could band together to block the funding measure from advancing out of the committee when it meets Monday evening. So far, Texas Representative Chip Roy, who sits on the Rules Committee, has announced that he will oppose the measure. Eyes will be on fiscal hawk Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who could allow the bill to come to the floor despite its lack of spending cuts.
Hardliners get another shot even if the committee advances the resolution. Technically, the whole House must approve the rule proposed by the panel before it can consider Johnson's plan.
Such procedural votes are typically party-line votes, and Johnson can afford to lose only three of his Republican members on such a vote. Democrats have only rarely crossed party lines to support Republican debate rules.
Johnson also has the option of bringing the interim funding to the floor without a debate rule using a different procedure that requires two-thirds of representatives to approve the bill. That would require support from a large number of Democratic lawmakers.
Such Democratic support is by no means guaranteed, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday praised Johnson's proposal for not including steep cuts or poison pills, and for leaving defense spending for the second deadline. The New York Democrat also warned Johnson not to add any objectionable cuts.
"I hope the speaker does not buckle to the loud voices on his hard-right flank to add partisan cuts," Schumer said.
It's what the bill lacks, however, that has drawn opposition from Democrats. The White House had been seeking to tie emergency Ukraine, Israel, humanitarian, and disaster aid to the package. Schumer delayed a vote scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Monday, which would have begun work on a rival Democratic plan. He left open the possibility that a vote on Johnson's plan could happen later this week.
GOP votes would have been needed to advance debate on that measure. Senate Republicans planned to block it, John Cornyn of Texas said on X.
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