A worker holds a Square card reader as a customer pays at Pike Place Market in Seattle on May 28, 2025. Photographer: M. Scott Brauer/Bloomberg.

Economic activity declined slightly in the United States in recent weeks, indicating that tariffs and elevated uncertainty are rippling across the economy, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. “All districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” according to the report published Wednesday.

Meanwhile, prices increased at a “moderate” pace in the U.S., the report said. And “there were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward.” A few regions expected these increases to be “strong, significant, or substantial.” The report noted that firms with plans to pass along tariff-related costs to consumers expect to do so within three months.

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President Donald Trump has imposed levies on many U.S. imports and threatened even higher tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. This week, he doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum. The ultimate shape and scale of tariffs remains highly uncertain. Mentions of tariffs came up 122 times in the Beige Book, compared with 107 in the prior report. Variations of the word “uncertain” appeared 80 times.

Most regions described employment as “flat,” and there were widespread comments about uncertainty delaying hiring. All districts noted weaker demand for labor, although wages continued to grow at a “modest” pace. The report noted the economic outlook remains “slightly pessimistic and uncertain,” similar to the previous Beige Book.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compiled the latest edition of the Beige Book using information gathered on or before May 23. The report includes commentary and anecdotes from business leaders and other contacts in each of the Fed’s 12 regional districts. The central bank meets again on June 17 and 18.

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