Credit: Pixels Hunter/Adobe Stock

Companies around the world are holding off on major strategic adjustments like shifting production to the United States or making other changes to global supply chains until they have more clarity about which of the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariffs will remain and which will be rolled back in negotiations. Over the longer term, however, companies are preparing to take steps, such as adjusting customer prices and even finding alternative markets for their products, if steep tariffs are put in place.

Almost 80 percent of large companies participating in a new study by Crisil Coalition Greenwich said that repeated changes in tariff policies have affected their business strategies.

Recommended For You

The study results show that the back-and-forth on tariffs has had a noticeable effect on companies in the United States and Asia, while having a more muted impact on large companies in Europe. More than 90 percent of companies in the U.S. and 80 percent in Asia said tariff announcements have affected their businesses, compared with 66 percent in Europe.

Those numbers actually understate the impact of tariffs on large multinationals. Among companies in all three regions that do business in the United States, nearly 9 out of 10 said new tariff policies have affected their businesses. Among these companies, approximately 35 percent said tariff announcements have already impacted supply-chain corridors and/or logistics strategies.

Companies in consumer-facing industries, including consumer discretionary and staple sectors, and the industrial and energy sectors were the most likely to report tariff effects, at roughly 90 percent.

Companies Plan Their Response

To better understand how companies are reacting to new tariffs, we asked those that do business in the U.S. about strategies they are implementing or planning to implement in response to the shifting trade policies. A significant share of these companies—roughly 43 percent—are taking a “wait and see” approach, meaning they are not making any adjustments to strategy until they have a better idea of how negotiations between the Trump administration and other governments will play out.

The wait-and-see approach seems to have been at least partially vindicated last month, when the U.S. agreed to slash its 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods—to 30 percent—in exchange for a comparable move from the Chinese government for a 90-day negotiation period.

However, the study also indicates some bad news for the U.S. consumer: Even with China tariffs reduced to “only” 30 percent, more than 4 in 10 companies around the world that do business in the United States said they are implementing or planning price adjustments, implying that at some point they intend to pass along some tariff costs to customers.

Among U.S. companies, 58 percent said they are implementing or planning price adjustments, implying that they intend to pass along at least some tariff costs to customers. About 30 percent of Asian and European companies with U.S. exposure are likewise implementing or planning price adjustments. More than 1 in 10 large U.S. companies (15%) said they are implementing or planning significant reductions in future capital expenditure (capex) investments in response to the new tariffs.

Businesses are also taking other actions in response to the tariffs, including some that seem to be in line with Trump administration goals. For example, nearly half (46%) of U.S. companies said they are diversifying suppliers or drawing up plans to do so, presumably to lower exposure to China and, potentially, to other Asian countries, like Vietnam, which have also been subject to steep tariffs that were subsequently paused for 90 days.

Approximately one-quarter of large U.S. companies said they are increasing local production in the United States or planning to do so. Meanwhile, 38 percent of U.S. companies (along with about one in three companies in Europe and Asia) said they are reaching out or planning to reach out to suppliers to renegotiate contracts, presumably to ask suppliers to absorb some portion of the new tariff costs.

Other moves by global companies seem much less constructive to the U.S. economy and Trump administration goals. For example, more than 40 percent of European companies doing business in the United States, and 45 percent of their counterparts in Asia, said they are either actively exploring alternative markets for their goods in response to U.S. tariffs or planning to do so. Only 11 percent of large European companies with business in the United States, and 15 percent of Asian companies with U.S. market exposure, said they are shifting production to the United States or planning to do so in response to tariffs.

NOT FOR REPRINT

© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Tobias Miarka

Dr. Tobias Miarka leads Crisil Coalition Greenwich Corporate Banking research globally and advises international as well as domestic banks on strategic client service and product issues that result in profit-enhancing and sustainable solutions. He is also affiliated with the ESCP Business School where he teaches banking- and fintech-related subjects as part of the school’s master in management program.