Search
 
Best Practices

Half Full or Half Empty?

Three prominent economists share their outlooks on the factors that will shape the course of the U.S. economy in 2007

X

Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

This can’t last forever, but does it need to end just yet? That’s the question facing economists as they take a final look at 2006′s combination of solid growth, surging corporate cash and profits with an eye on prospects for 2007. Broadly speaking, economists predict a slowdown in all three, but opinions vary widely on how sharp a deceleration to anticipate. According to the December Blue Chip Economic Indicators report, the consensus of 54 economists calls for gross domestic product growth of 2.4% in 2007, the slowest expansion since 2002. That compares with the estimated 3.3% for 2006. The group predicts a substantial slowdown in corporate profit growth–5% in 2007 versus the heady 19.8% in 2006. “The two biggest drags on the economy for the last couple of quarters have been the recession in housing and in automotive,” says Randell Moore, executive editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Whether those sectors contract further will be key for how much of a slowdown the nation experiences. As for the outlook for recession, the consensus placed the odds at a low 28% for the coming 12 months. Treasury & Risk has asked three Wall Street economists to spotlight the factor that they believe will be most influential: Paul Kasriel from Northern Trust Co., Milton Ezrati from Lord Abbett & Co. and Stephen Stanley from RBS Greenwich Capital.

SPENDING IS SO LAST YEAR By PAUL KASRIELLed by the recession in the housing sector, U.S. economic growth has decelerated to a rate below its potential and is likely to remain below potential throughout most of 2007. The weakness in housing already has and will continue to have a negative impact on many sectors of the economy, but none more important than its effects on consumer spending.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.

Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Critical Treasury & Risk information including in-depth analysis of treasury and finance best practices, case studies with corporate innovators, informative newsletters, educational webcasts and videos, and resources from industry leaders.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Treasury & Risk events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including PropertyCasualty360.com and Law.com.

Already have an account?

Dig Deeper

Recommended Stories

Robust Rebound for the U.S.

Aaron Rutstein |

The speed and consistency of the economic recovery will depend on political stability and continued vaccination progress.

Treasury & Risk

Join Treasury & Risk

Don’t miss crucial treasury and finance news along with in-depth analysis and insights you need to make informed treasury decisions. Join Treasury & Risk now!

  • Free unlimited access to Treasury & Risk including case studies with corporate innovators, informative newsletters, educational webcasts, and resources from industry leaders.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Treasury & Risk events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM publications including PropertyCasualty360.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join Treasury & Risk

Copyright © 2021 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.