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Right now the greatest threat to America’s economic recovery and to further market gains is the situation in the Persian Gulf. Absent this danger of higher crude and gasoline prices, investors can reasonably anticipate a durable, if plodding, economic recovery and modest relief from European debt fears now that the European Central Bank has adopted an easier monetary policy. It is, then, the potential economic fallout from higher oil prices, not to mention the shock of a military confrontation, that poses the biggest risk. If probabilities still favor some easing of tensions and so continued economic and market gains, the danger is significant enough to warrant serious attention.

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