Even if China's growth slows, it still will surpass theUnited States' GDP leadership in the next 10 to 12 years, but don'texpect the same with its technology innovation, says Anil Gupta,professor at the Smith School of Business at University ofMaryland, in remarks made during a discussion about innovation andthe economy at the EuroFinance International Cash and TreasuryManagement conference in Miami, Fla. early this month.

Gupta, aleading expert on strategy, globalization and emerging markets,says that “sometime in the next 10 to 12 years, it is certainChina's GDP as a percent of global share will overtake the U.S.[GDP]. But technologically, it will not overtake [the U.S.] for atleast two decades.”

As evidence, Gupta notes although China now has 20% of theworld's population, 9% of global GDP and 13% of world spending onresearch and development, it holds only 1% of the world's patents.In biotech publications, only 3% of articles are by Chineseauthors, while 60% are by U.S. authors. “This is a huge gap,” hesays.