Even if China's growth slows, it still will surpass the United States' GDP leadership in the next 10 to 12 years, but don't expect the same with its technology innovation, says Anil Gupta, professor at the Smith School of Business at University of Maryland, in remarks made during a discussion about innovation and the economy at the EuroFinance International Cash and Treasury Management conference in Miami, Fla. early this month.

Gupta, a leading expert on strategy, globalization and emerging markets, says that “sometime in the next 10 to 12 years, it is certain China's GDP as a percent of global share will overtake the U.S. [GDP]. But technologically, it will not overtake [the U.S.] for at least two decades.”

As evidence, Gupta notes although China now has 20% of the world's population, 9% of global GDP and 13% of world spending on research and development, it holds only 1% of the world's patents. In biotech publications, only 3% of articles are by Chinese authors, while 60% are by U.S. authors. “This is a huge gap,” he says.