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Fed Likely to Cut Growth Forecast

Policy makers could shift to risk management strategy as downside risks increase.

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Federal Reserve officials must choose this week between their best estimates and their worst fears of what will happen to the U.S. economy.

Policy makers will bring new forecasts to their June 19-20 meeting and probably will mark down their April central-tendency estimate for growth of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent this year. Lurking in the background is the risk of increasing financial stress in Europe and stubbornly high U.S. unemployment that has remained above 8 percent for 40 consecutive months.

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