Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, says a hard market in insurance, which he defines as a 10% to 15% jump in rates, isn't likely to occur this year or next, according to Insurance Journal.

In a talk to a Casualty Actuarial Society seminar, Hartwig noted that hard markets usually require sustained insurance industry losses, a drop in the industry's capacity, a rise in reinsurance rates and an increase in underwriting discipline among insurers.

While insurers saw considerable losses in 2011, so far this year catastrophes have been limited, and the insurance industry still has considerable surplus. Hartwig notes that reinsurance rates have risen, though nothing like the moves seen after big disasters in the past, and he also sees some signs of renewed underwriting discipline.

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