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No Double Dip Recession

A recession probably won't happen this year, largely because the economy exhibits none of the excesses that typically lead recessions.

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The flow of economic news is hardly encouraging. Jobs growth remains disappointing. Recent readings on consumer spending and business activity show weakness as well. If the picture of the housing market has improved a bit, it still hardly portrays strength. Meanwhile, China’s slowdown and Europe’s recession further depress people’s moods and their expectations. Talk of an imminent recessionary dip has become common, for the third time now in as many years. But though there is a temptation to go along with this flow, the history of double-dip scares itself recommends restraint. After all, double-dip forecasts from 2010 and 2011, popular as they were, missed both times. They will likely miss again this year, too, not because the economy is strong, for it most definitely is not, but because it exhibits none of the excesses that typically lead recessions. 

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