Once the matter of the fiscalcliff is resolved, as is likely by early next year at the latest,it would be nice to contemplate a reprieve from Washington.Unfortunately, there will be no such luck. Apart from the cryingneed for fundamental fiscal reform, a new urgency will developaround the implementation of Obamacare, more formally known as theAffordable Care Act. The law dictates full implementation byJanuary 2014. Despite the Supreme Court decision affirming thehealthcare law and the president's re-election, the matter isproving to be more complex and politically fraught then evenpessimists expected. The attendant uncertainties will disrupt plansand planning throughout the economy at least the next 12 to 24months.

The insurance mandate forms part of the problem. Endorsed lastyear by the Supreme Court, it imposes penalties on those who failto buy insurance, ranging from $695 for each uninsured individualto 2.5% of family income, whichever is higher, up to $12,500.Tracking compliance alone will burden the Internal Revenue Service.Though the implementation budget funds no more than 1,200 new hiresat the IRS for Obamacare, the agency may need to hire up to 16,500additional employees. Enforcement will bring on furthercomplications. Though the law makes the penalties clear, it makesno provision for either civil or criminal actions against those whorefuse. The IRS has no ability to seize bank accounts or dockwages, nor will interest accumulate on unpaid penalties. The onlything the IRS can do beyond sending scary letters (for which,admittedly, it has remarkable talent) is to withhold refunds,hardly a motivation if the refund is less than the penalty.

More complex and potentially much more disruptive are thequestions surrounding the state insurance exchanges, thecenterpiece of healthcare reform. Those who framed the lawanticipated that each state would set up its own exchange to enableits residents to buy adequate health insurance at the lowestpossible cost. But at least 16 states have refused to set upexchanges, some with more fanfare than others. Another five decidednot to set up their own exchanges and proposed a partnership withthe federal government, while four others are considering apartnership. Beyond these 25 states, others clearly will fail tomeet the deadline written into the regulations.