The first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years is stoking speculation that the longer it lasts, the more likely the Federal Reserve will delay reducing its monetary stimulus program, boosting emerging-market currencies at the expense of the dollar.

At least $300 million a day in economic output will initially be lost because lawmakers can't agree on a budget, according to IHS Inc. A two-week shutdown starting Oct. 1 could cut growth by 0.3 percentage point to a 2.3 percent rate, according to St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

The Fed's stimulus programs have weighed on the greenback, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index falling 0.9 percent since Sept. 17. That was the day before the central bank decided to keep printing cash to buy $85 billion of bonds a month because it has yet to see signs of sustained economic growth. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index is up 0.3 percent in that period.