Cyber attacks and cyber terrorism rank among the top emerging risks concerning the reinsurance industry in the year ahead, according to the latest Guy Carpenter & Co. survey.

The third annual survey polled insurance and reinsurance executives at the 2014 Property Casualty Insurers Assn. of America (PCI) Annual Meeting held this year in Scottsdale, Ariz. The survey was designed to identify what reinsurance professionals believe are the key drivers and threats to profitable growth in the industry. This year's survey examines which emerging risk respondents felt to be most threatening to the industry in the coming year.

Forty percent of the survey participants ranked cyber attacks as the most threatening emerging risk, while 31% and 29% cited terrorism and climate change as the most threatening. In comparison, 82% of survey respondents felt that space risk was the least threatening to the industry.

“Cyber-attacks are one of the most serious economic and national security challenges facing not only the insurance industry, but governments and businesses around the world,” said Andrew Marcell, managing director and chief executive officer of U.S. operations at Guy Carpenter. “The challenge in facing emerging risks such as cyber-attacks or terrorism, where there is less of a historical precedence and data available, rests in modeling and quantifying the potential impacts. Assessing and managing current and future risks will continue to be critically important for the industry to realize its growth objectives.”

While cyber security concerns are among the top risks, the findings also reveal that new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

Looking forward, 40% of survey respondents believe the biggest opportunity to expand their businesses in 2015 will be through new products, an increase from only 24% in 2013. Twenty-three percent of respondents cited expanding into new geographic markets as being the top driver of profitability, but considering this was the top response in last year's survey, it has become significantly less of a priority. New products and geographic expansion were followed by new distribution channels and mergers and acquisitions at 17% and 14% respectively.

Alternatively, the survey findings this year once again cite undisciplined and unprofitable underwriting as a leading threat to plans for growth in the year ahead (30%). Concerns surrounding the economic stagnation of the U.S. and countries abroad, as well as regulatory changes, are also on the rise. Nearly a quarter of respondents claim regulatory and rating agency changes are the biggest threat to their plans for growth, while 19% are most concerned about global economic uncertainty, which is up from 12% in 2013.

With relatively low insured catastrophe losses coming at the end of the Atlantic Hurricane season, only 19% of respondents cited catastrophe/non-cat losses as a leading threat to future plans, which is on par with responses to last year's survey. At the same time, 11% of respondents believe operational inefficiencies are the leading threat to their business, which is down from 15% in 2013.

Overall improvements to technology and a focus on identifying and retaining talent continues to be a main priority for (re)insurance professionals. The survey results show that more than one in three respondents would spend additional resources on talent and retention, if given a blank check to invest in their firm. Bolstering information technology is also a top priority for the industry, as 37% of respondents claim that they would allocate a blank check to this area of their business.

“The insurance industry continues to see significant opportunities to aggregate and analyze massive amounts of data and harness this information quickly to respond to changes in the market and gain a competitive advantage. Big data without analysis and interpretation, however, is just noise. This is where having strong talent and strategic partners becomes critically important,” Marcell said. “At Guy Carpenter, we will continue to invest in our industry-leading analytics, strategic advisory services and specialized reinsurance broking expertise to help our clients realize the enormous potential of big data that will, in turn, enable them to grow profitably.”

The survey was conducted by Guy Carpenter at the 2014 PCI Annual Meeting held in Scottsdale, Ariz. from Oct. 26 through Oct. 29. The survey polled 111 insurance and reinsurance professionals. The 2013 survey, for comparison, polled 115 professionals.

Instant Insights /

Cyber Attacks, Cyber Terrorism among Top Emerging Risks

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