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Most Wall Street analysts predicted a bear market for bonds in 2014 and got it wrong. Who’s to say they’ll get it right this year?

After all, today’s consensus forecast is similar to what it was a year ago: U.S. government-bond yields will finally start climbing as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. Analysts predict benchmark 10-year yields will rise to 3.06 percent by year-end, up from 2.05 percent today.

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