Most Wall Street analysts predicted a bear market for bonds in2014 and got it wrong. Who's to say they'll get it right thisyear?

After all, today's consensus forecast is similar to what it was a yearago: U.S. government-bond yields will finally start climbing as theFederal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. Analysts predictbenchmark 10-year yields will rise to 3.06 percent by year-end, upfrom 2.05 percent today.

This seems reasonable if oil prices stabilize after plunging asmuch as 50 percent in 2014. And if U.S. economic growth acceleratesto a 3 percent rate from 2.3 percent last year, as predicted in aBloomberg survey of analysts. And if Europe also avoids deflationas policy makers pump stimulus into the region.

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