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The U.K. government issued its starkest warning yet about the dangers of a vote to leave the European Union in next month’s referendum, saying it risks causing a yearlong recession, sparking a decline in the pound and costing hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Gross domestic product in 2018 would be 3.6 percentage points lower than the current forecast, which is for a 4.3 percent increase, the Treasury said Monday in a document assessing the short-term economic consequences of a so-called Brexit. That’s under a “shock scenario” that the Treasury described as “cautious.” Under a “severe shock” scenario, GDP would be 6 percentage points lower than otherwise, and house prices would fall about 10 percent from current levels.

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