X

Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

It’s not hard to see the potential flash points on the horizon: the U.S. presidential election, Deutsche Bank AG’s mounting legal charges, the day central banks stop buying bonds. Yet when it comes to gauging risks in the world’s financial markets, these days investors are flying more or less blind.

That’s because the once-dependable indicators traders relied on for decades to send out warnings are no longer up to the task. The so-called yield curve isn’t the recession predictor it once was. Swap spreads are so distorted they can’t be trusted. Even the vaunted VIX—sometimes referred to as the “fear gauge”—is leading its followers astray, strategists say.

As central banks around the world pump billions of dollars into the global economy every month and policy makers pass regulations to safeguard against a relapse of the 2008 financial crisis, the market’s best and brightest say some warning signals are flashing at precisely the wrong time. Now, rules to shore up the money-market fund industry that kicked in Friday are stifling the predictive powers of yet another set of gauges. For investors, the big worry is they’ll end up being taken by surprise when the next crisis hits.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.

Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Critical Treasury & Risk information including in-depth analysis of treasury and finance best practices, case studies with corporate innovators, informative newsletters, educational webcasts and videos, and resources from industry leaders.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Treasury & Risk events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including PropertyCasualty360.com and Law.com.

Already have an account?

Dig Deeper

 

Treasury & Risk

Join Treasury & Risk

Don’t miss crucial treasury and finance news along with in-depth analysis and insights you need to make informed treasury decisions. Join Treasury & Risk now!

  • Free unlimited access to Treasury & Risk including case studies with corporate innovators, informative newsletters, educational webcasts, and resources from industry leaders.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Treasury & Risk events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM publications including PropertyCasualty360.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join Treasury & Risk

Copyright © 2021 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.