For her CBC Massey Lectures in 2008, Canadian writer MargaretAtwood chose to talk about debt.

The text, written in the first half of the year, described howshe'd noticed a lot more ads on public transportation for debtrelief services. “Why are there so many of these ads? Is it becausethere are unprecedented numbers of people in debt? Very possibly,”she said.

Today, more than 10 years after the global debt-driven financialcrisis that Atwood intuited, angst remains. Central banks thatbought bonds and kept interest rates low to spur economic recoveryhave fueled record levels of corporate and governmentborrowing.

While Atwood's lectures considered debt from historical,theological, literary, and even ecological perspectives, we askedinvestors and analysts to consider a simpler question as thiscredit cycle ages: What could go wrong now?

Kathleen Gaffney

VP & Director of Diversified Fixed Income, Eaton VanceManagement

It's got to be rates that cause a problem at some point. Thenit's a question of who goes first. Is it high yield? Is it loans?Is it investment grade? Because IG started to really crack morethan high yield before December, because there just wasn't enoughof a cushion in credit spreads.

It seems like it's all wrapped up in credit markets. Then itseems like it would be liquidity. It's hard to tell exactly whereit's going to come from. I don't think there's a particular sectorthat's so levered up that it's something like that. It could beeverything all at once.

Valuations are so tight, there's too much risk there. I don'tsee it as a seizure as much as a dramatic lesson in pricediscovery.

The idea that fixed income is no longer a safe hedge againstequity volatility could create flows out of fixed income. There isthis perception of safety. If you don't have any return, thenwhat's the case for owning it?

Kristin Forbes

Professor, MIT's Sloan School of Management, & FormerBank of England Policymaker

Risks are shifting to other sectors of the economy. We sometimescall it the “shadow financial system.” These risks now are in partsof the financial system that are less regulated, less monitored,and we have a less good idea of what those risks are and howthey're evolving. It could be the leveraged loan market, forexample. Those are the sectors of the economy that I'm most worriedabout right now.

Michael Temple

Director of Corporate Credit Research for the U.S., AmundiPioneer Asset Management

I actually don't think it's necessarily going to be the U.S.that's in the epicenter. I think it's going to be overseas. Clearlygrowth is a lot slower in Europe right now, and you're seeing anumber of countries in recession. Could you see defaults andincreasing problems in Europe that ultimately cycle back to theU.S.?

And what about China ? If China cannot reinvigorate growth withits current stimulus program, then we could start to see problemscoming out of China.

Greg Hahn

President & CIO, Winthrop Capital Management

We think we're on the front end of a potential shift in thecredit cycle. It's going to show differently this time. We thinkit's going to be expressed in the public markets through leveragedloans. One of the telltale signs is structured securities. Issuanceis up, CLOs [collateralized loan obligations] are up. We're seeingcovenant-lite loans that are coming to market. These are all signs;2017-, 2018-, and 2019-vintage structured securities could beproblematic.

Adam Richmond

Head of U.S. Credit Strategy, Morgan Stanley

Partly because of the last financial crisis, the system issafer. The chance of another systemic crisis is very low. Whatwe're looking at is something more like 2002 in terms of theleverage built up.

Michael Buchanan

Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Western AssetManagement

I always say you follow the money because that is where youreally start to see excess risk build. Where is the money goingnow? Private credit.

There's quite a bit of money that's flowing in that direction,whether through institutional managers or BDCs [businessdevelopment companies]. Investors didn't necessarily need theliquidity that you get in the syndicated bond or syndicated loanmarket. If in exchange for that illiquidity risk, you could getbetter return on capital through higher yield, that made a lot ofsense.

There has been a tremendous amount of demand for private credit.But investors knowingly went into private credit understanding thatthere was real illiquidity there. The mark-to-market could bepretty painful when things do turn, but in terms of how they havethese assets allocated, they fall within an illiquid bucket. That'sone factor that could prevent it from becoming a systemiccrisis.

Peter Tchir

Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities Inc.

I don't think there's going to be another credit crisis becauseI don't see the leverage in the trading system. In the financialcrisis, everything was kind of interconnected. As soon as one partof the capital structure started getting in trouble, everything hadto get sold. There was a lot of mark-to-market risk.

I do think we can get bouts like we saw in December, where theETFs in particular drive prices lower, but they can reboundquickly. There's just not liquidity. But I don't see people beingforced out of the market.

Priya Misra

Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities

If you do have people worried about the deficit plus a downturn,you could see an increase in real rates. You're seeing this inCanada. Because their mortgage market is much more floating-rate,you're seeing the impact on the consumer.

A lot of people attribute the risk-off in the fourth quarter tothe Fed's shrinking balance sheet. I attribute it to the increasein real rates. When real rates rise, people move out of credit intoTreasuries. If we get inflation, we can handle higher rates. If wedon't, that's more damaging.

Jim Bianco

President & Founder, Bianco Research LLC

What would cause creditworthiness to get devalued would be arecession or economic slowdown. We're seeing that to some extent inEurope.

The next question is what would cause rates to go higher. Andthat would be inflation. We don't really understand inflation.Whenever you're in year 10 of a recovery and a bull market,obviously there are excesses, and I don't think we all know wherethey are.

Kristina Hooper

Chief Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd.

The one significant catalyst would be quickly rising rates, andI don't see that happening anytime soon. If anything, what we'veseen is central bank after central bank accept the fact that theyneed to get more dovish, even though they're very interested innormalizing to prepare for the next crisis.

We all worry about the triple-B [credit rating] space, justbecause there's been such an increase in that space and because ithangs on the precipice of being knocked over. And of course there'sa lot in the way of refinancings to expect. Not this year butreally next year, 2020, we should see about 10 percent of thosebonds needing to be refinanced. That is probably the first areathat we'd want to look to.

I also worry about specific places like auto loans, where we'vejust seen defaults go up quite significantly. Is it going to causethe kind of crisis that we saw during the GFC [global financialcrisis]? No. But that suggests weakness in pockets, and we want tofollow that closely.

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