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The core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.1% from February to March—the least in nine months.

“Given ... the likely boost to near-term inflation from tariffs, the bar for cutting rates, even in the face of a weakening economy and potentially increased unemployment, is higher.”

“I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately,” the president posted on social media.

European and Japanese government bonds are looking more attractive than U.S. debt for investors in those countries, where yields are up and the policy outlook appears more stable.

The dispute between Elon Musk and Peter Navarro comes as many companies, nations, and trade groups are expressing frustration over the uncertainty around how to best negotiate a reduction to Trump’s tariffs.

UBS expects the premium investors require over U.S. Treasuries rates to reach 160–170 bps for high-grade debt and 600–650 bps for junk debt by midyear.