“There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada. Exactly what they are, we’re going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate.”
“This is the kind of thing that if you do see it sustained at higher levels—and definitely if it keeps increasing—that’s the kind of worrying inflation for the Fed.”
“References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high. Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
Chinese data indicates that the nominal value of exports to the U.S. has grown, even as U.S. data shows imports from China falling. This discrepancy increases questions around the impacts of the recently enacted 10% tariff.
Economists also see a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months—up from January and the first increase in two years, but well below the 65% chance estimated in the first half of 2023.